000 AXNT20 KNHC 140009 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.1N 68.0W AT 14/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 273 NM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND ABOUT 577 NM S-SW OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 43 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 66W-68W. DOPPLER RADAR OF SAN JUAN SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED TO THE SE OF THE ISLAND. WHILE MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 12N60W TO 22N59W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS SHOWN ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS IS MOSTLY TO THE N-NE FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 56W-59W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 14N87W TO 21N87W MOVING W AT 5 KT. LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE CLOUD FIELD IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS IN THE IR IMAGERY. THIS CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALSO NOTICED IN THE GFS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. SCATTERED AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 85W-92W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W ALONG 10N24W TO 08N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY S OF THE TROUGH FROM 04N14W TO 3N28W...AND FROM 04N-7N BETWEEN 31W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N89W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT VERY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROVIDING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF TONIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF 5-10 KT PREVAIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AS THE RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM MARIA OUTER RAIN BANDS CONTINUE IMPACTING PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-68W. AS MARIA MOVES TO THE N...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W IS FORECAST TO MOVE W-NW BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-83W DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED IN MEXICO NEAR 26N102W IS PROVIDING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER FARTHER WEST...A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED NEAR 88W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HONDURAS AS WELL AS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AS THIS TROPICAL WAVE SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... IN THE WEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A NORTHWARD TRACK. THE OTHER PROMINENT FEATURE IS A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED NEAR 60W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 32N50W WHICH IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A 1009 MB LOW IS BEING ANALYZED AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS LOW AT THIS TIME. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS