000 AXNT20 KNHC 130535 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.3N 67.5W AT 13/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 310 NM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND ABOUT 680 NM S-SW OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MARIA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS SE OF THE CENTER FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 63W-67W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TUE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 21N55W TO 11N59W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH OUT FLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIA AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE N ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 11N59W TO 22N53W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND S GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 10N21W 11N31W THROUGH A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 9N38W TO 7N42W. THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO CONVERGING NE/SE FLOW...SO NO ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF W AFRICA WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 19W TO INLAND OVER GUINEA-BISSAU...GAMBIA...AND SENEGAL. SMALL ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 29W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E CONUS INTO THE GULF N OF 23N USHERING IN DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE N GULF GIVING THE AREA N OF 25N REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N BETWEEN 85W-95W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N89W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE N GULF THROUGH FRI. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM MARIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 18N87W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 20N W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA BETWEEN 75W-82W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA HAVE MOVED INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS DOTTING THE AREA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 67W-80W. THE TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TUE CROSSING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E CONUS EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W TO BEYOND 32N74W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA NEAR 27N65W. AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N37W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N39W GENERATING ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 40W-47W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 50W AND N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-75W WITH A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N55W AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N34W. TROPICAL STORM MARIA WILL MOVE NW THROUGH LATE TUE THEN TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND BE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE WED. A TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE W ATLC THU THROUGH SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW