000 AXNT20 KNHC 111756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE AT 11/1800 UTC IS NEAR 20.5N 97.2W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 15 MI...30 KM E OF POZA RICA MEXICO ...OR ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF TUXPAN MEXICO. NATE IS MOVING W 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 96W-99W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA AT 11/1500 UTC IS NEAR 19.0N 64.6W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF ST. THOMAS...OR ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. MARIA IS MOVING WNW 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 60W-64W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 59W-65W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N44W 8N52W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N83W 15N83W 11N82W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE AXIS IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 75W-86W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC AT 20N16W AND EXTENDS SW TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N25W TO 8N30W TO 8N36W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 14W-19W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 10W-14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 16W-30W... AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 28W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM NATE IS MOVING INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ...AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. NATE IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST THEN DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF LOUISIANA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 89W-92W. E OF 95W OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...5-10 NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW AND SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERN WIND BANDS OF MARIA ARE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF NW VENEZUELA E OF LAKE MARACAIBO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA. OUTSIDE OF MARIA...10-25 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MARIA TO MOVE WNW INTO THE ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM MARIA... A TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE THE DOMINANT WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 26N79W 21N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER N OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N56W. ANOTHER 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA