000 AXNT20 KNHC 111150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE AT 11/1200 UTC IS NEAR 19.4N 96.3W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 14 NM TO THE NNW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. NATE IS MOVING SW 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS MEXICO AND PARTS OF WESTERN GUATEMALA. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA AT 11/0900 UTC IS NEAR 18.5N 62.9W. MARIA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N42W 13N46W 9N49W. ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 19N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W. SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE RELATED JUST TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N82W 16N81W 12N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W... AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W. A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE ENVELOPS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 20N16W...TO 14N24W ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 9N29W AND 9N37W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM NATE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 23N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS MOVING AWAY FROM T.S. NATE ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SEPARATE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 26N91W...THROUGH A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N89W...BEYOND BORDER OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM T.S. MARIA CURVES THROUGH THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...REACHING AT LEAST 70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N64W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N BETWEEN LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W...FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 80W AND LAND. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N63W 13N64W 12N67W. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N74W TO 24N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO 26N...BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N74W 24N76W 21N77W. THIS TROUGH ORIGINALLY WAS PART OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N60W TO A 27N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N70W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 27N39W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A GENERAL SENSE FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE 27N39W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 15N47W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT