000 AXNT20 KNHC 101156 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE AT 10/1200 UTC IS NEAR 20.0N 94.0W...OR ABOUT 135 NM TO THE E-NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 NM E-SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO. NATE IS MOVING W AT 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA AT 10/1200 UTC IS NEAR 16.9N 61.2W...OR ABOUT 45 NM TO THE N-NE OF GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT 295 NM E-SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NW AT 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 64W. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA AT 10/0900 UTC IS NEAR 43.3N 53.4W. IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST 38 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 970 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KATIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 43N51W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N37W 12N41W 5N45W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 17N BETWEEN 33W AND 57W. SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE RELATED JUST TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH EASTERN JAMAICA ALONG 77W/78W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST ALONG 10N75W BEYOND CENTRAL COSTA RICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 73W AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 8N18W AND 10N25W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN LAND AND 16W... AND WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 8N28W. ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM NATE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LINE FROM 29N80W...TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 20N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FROM AN ALREADY-DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG THE LINE FROM THE FLORIDA GULF COAST NEAR 30N81W TO 25N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 84W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...ACROSS CUBA... TO 18N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N63W CYCLONIC CENTER TOWARD THE MONA PASSAGE. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA...FROM THE COASTAL SECTIONS INLAND ALONG 66W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST ALONG 10N75W BEYOND CENTRAL COSTA RICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PASSING THROUGH EASTERN JAMAICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 73W AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 25N80W 29N73W BEYOND 33N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N20W TO 27N24W...TO A 27N38W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 20N42W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N35W TO 30N73W THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 73W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT