000 AXNT20 KNHC 070007 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... KATIA WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. AS OF 2100 UTC THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA IS NEAR 27.6N 66.7W OR ABOUT 345 MI OR 555 KM SSW OF BERMUDA. KATIA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE MARINE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 63W-67W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 37.0W AT 06/2100Z OR ABOUT 800 NM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 35W-39W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALSO SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED AT THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 92W-97W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 13N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-14N E 0F 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 20W-23W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN 50W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 57W-59W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES AND THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN HAVE DISRUPTED THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. INLAND OVER W AFRICA SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 14W-17W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 23W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED AT THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N80W 22N90W 21N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 82W. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND TEXAS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD...AND FOR THE LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AND DEEPEN. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF N COLOMBIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA JAMAICA...AND CUBA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 60W-63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE BRINGING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN 24 HOURS EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE KATIA...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN...AND THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE DOMINANT WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 36N53W. ANOTHER 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 39N18W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 48W-56W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA/RAMOS