000 AXNT20 KNHC 061837 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2011 CORRECTION IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... KATIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA AT 05/1500 UTC IS NEAR 27.0N 65.9W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 600 NM TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. KATIA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AROUND KATIA IS DEVELOPED ENOUGH IN ORDER TO COVER PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 17N TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 78W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N34W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 34W AND 37W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO BE INITIATED LATER TODAY IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN GRADUALLY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST 15 MPH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 3N TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NOT ALL THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT SURROUNDS THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER MAY BE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE LOW CENTER. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT IS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY...IF NECESSARY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N52W 15N51W 11N49W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W AND 55W. OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 16N17W TO 13N20W TO 11N27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 18W AND 25W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH IS DRIVING THE CURRENT COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO MEXICO NEAR 18N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF 67W...MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 53W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N79W 13N82W 17N84W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF PANAMA...AND IT REACHES THE BORDER OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS...AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N53W AND 15N53W. THIS TROUGH IS TO THE WEST OF THE 19N52W 11N49W TROPICAL WAVE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 48W AND 57W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W AND 55W...PROBABLY RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N39W TO 27N41W 21N44W AND 13N49W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N27W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 28N27W AND 23N35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT