000 AXNT20 KNHC 050544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON SEP 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE KATIA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.4N 61.0W AT 05/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 335 NM N-NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 570 NM S-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 59W-63W. TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 05/0300 UTC. T.D. LEE IS CENTERED NEAR 31.0N 91.4W WHICH IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA OR ABOUT 48 NM W-SW OF MCCOMB MISSISSIPPI AND ABOUT 52 NM E-SE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA MOVING E-NE AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY WRITTEN BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCPAT3/WTNT33 KWNH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 27W/28W BETWEEN 11N-17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE MONSOON TROF IS VERY ACTIVE IN THE AREA JUST S OF THE WAVE BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 19N43W TO 13N41W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH DRIER AIR UNDERCUTTING THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE IS LOCATED AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS GENERATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ITSELF. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W THEN S ALONG 11N24W TO 10N31W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N BETWEEN 43W-49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 26W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... T.D. LEE CONTINUES TO GENERATE BANDS OF SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N E OF 90W AND INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST E OF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER TO NE FLORIDA. AT 05/0300 UTC A COLD FRONT IS JUST TO THE W OF T.D. LEE EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI WHERE IT TURNS W ACROSS S TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N92W TO 22N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT N OF 24N AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 24N. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W GULF WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE E GULF. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED JUST S OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. THE REMNANTS OF LEE WILL DRIFT NE THROUGH MISSISSIPPI MON AND ALABAMA ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT WILL DIG SE THROUGH THE W GULF MON AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM NE GULF TO BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NE NICARAGUA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE GIVING THE NW CARIBBEAN NE FLOW ALOFT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 77W-86W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED JUST S OF CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA W OF 86W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE E CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY E OF 70W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WHILE HURRICANE KATIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NW AWAY FROM TROPICAL ATLC EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO PERSIST N OF 18N E OF 63W THROUGH TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE KATIA REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST AS LONG-PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH KATIA ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE COAST. EVEN IF KATIA DOES NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE UNITED STATES...THE THREAT FOR HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST COAST BEACHES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY NORTHERLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA AND FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATIA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC INTO THE TROPICS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N25W SW TO 15N40W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 35W-45W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC MAINLY N OF 20N WITH A WEAKNESS SURROUNDING HURRICANE KATIA AND ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N45W. HURRICANE KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE W ATLC THROUGH WED MOVING N OF THE AREA ON THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW