000 AXNT20 KNHC 050002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE KATIA AT 04/2100 UTC IS NEAR 22.7N 60.1W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 640 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. KATIA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AROUND KATIA IS DEVELOPED ENOUGH IN ORDER TO REACH 34N60W AND 26N45W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W...AND FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. TROPICAL STORM LEE IS INLAND IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE CENTER OF LEE AT 05/0000 UTC IS NEAR 30.9N 91.8W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 45 MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA... AND ABOUT 45 MILES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA. LEE IS MOVING NORTHWARD 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 95W. MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS IN SOME OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 INCHES...AND OTHER TOTALS RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N27W 10N24W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N42W 13N39W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N26W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N32W AND 15N40W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY NOT BE EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION THAT ONLY IS WITH THE WAVE AND THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED ONLY WITH THE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 10N23W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 8N43W 8N50W...INTO NORTHEASTERN SURINAME NEAR 5N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FOCUS OF INTEREST RIGHT NOW IS TROPICAL STORM LEE AND ITS RAINY IMPACT ON THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COAST STATES BETWEEN FLORIDA ALONG 83W AND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. THIS WIND FLOW IS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS SPIRALING AWAY FROM LEE. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ALL THE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALREADY ARE RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 INCHES BETWEEN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. FLOODING IS A MAJOR THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. REFER TO FLOOD FORECASTS AND HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THESE THREATS. LEE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH LEE AND...AND THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY MUCH DRIER AIR THAT IS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE FAIR CONDITIONS. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN UNDER THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LEE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ACROSS JAMAICA...INTO THE AREA OF WESTERN NICARAGUA/SOUTHERN HONDURAS/AND POSSIBLY EL SALVADOR. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM AFTERNOON HEATING AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH ARE FROM EAST TO WEST IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA...AND FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO SOUTHEASTERN AND WESTERN HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N77W IN THE GULF OF URABA ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST...ACROSS PANAMA...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN PANAMA TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM KATIA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO BUT STILL ANYWHERE FROM AT LEAST 500 TO 600 NM TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION THAT IS AROUND KATIA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST. THE TROUGH ROUGHLY PASSES THROUGH 33N69W TO 27N70W BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N42W 13N39W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N26W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N32W AND 15N40W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY NOT BE EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION THAT ONLY IS WITH THE WAVE AND THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED ONLY WITH THE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 53W...MOVING AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N47W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT