000 AXNT20 KNHC 020553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA AT 02/0300 UTC IS NEAR 16.7N 50.6W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 720 NM EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. KATIA IS MOVING WNW AT 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 47W-51W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 46W-51W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN AT 02/0600 UTC IS NEAR 26.3N 91.5W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 1210 NM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... OR ABOUT 255 NM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN 85W-92W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1006 MB LOW IS NEAR 38N64W. THIS LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 310 NM TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA. THIS LOW CENTER IS PRODUCING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. THIS LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT 10-15 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N24W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N27W...TO 7N31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 21W-27W...AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 28W-31W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER WEST AFRICA TERMINATES AT THE COAST NEAR 17N16W. THE TROPICAL LOW/TROPICAL WAVE... AND T.S. KATIA HAVE DISRUPTED THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 14W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 30W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FOCUS OF INTEREST RIGHT NOW IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ALL THE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. NUMEROUS BUOYS AND SHIPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ARE REPORTING 25-30 KT WINDS. IN ADDITION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 80W-84W. TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COAST IS MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN TO DRIFT N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING AND A STORM SURGE OF 2-4 FT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SE TO S SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 17N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N. A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER N COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA TO N COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 75W-79W. THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL STORM KATIA IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 29N68W 25N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 27N-35N BETWEEN 48W-58W. EXPECT KATIA TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND INTENSIFY BACK TO A HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA