000 AXNT20 KNHC 010546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA AT 01/0300 UTC IS NEAR 15.0N 44.4W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 1012 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 42W-46W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 41W-48W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AT 28N88W TO TO N GUATEMALA AT 17N91W MOVING W AT 10 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S MEXICO AND GUATEMALA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 90W-93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO...W CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-29N BETWEEN 81W-89W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE LATER THURSDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 20N E OF 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS AFRICA NEAR 18N16W AND EXTENDS SW TO 10N18W 5N28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 23W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 25N W OF 90W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO SPREAD NW OVER THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER NW VENEZUELA...AND N COLOMBIA DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA TO N COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 72W-76W. THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS HURRICANE KATIA IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE A PROMINENT SURFACE TROUGH IS EVIDENT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N54W TO 23N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 52W-56W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N41W. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N13W TO 30N18W TO 30N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT. EXPECT KATIA TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA