000 AXNT20 KNHC 301134 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM KATIA IS CENTERED NEAR 11.8N 31.7W AS OF 30/0900 UTC...OR ABOUT 35 MI...855 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE CENTER FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 32W-39W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA AND BARELY ENTERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W TO 18N20W. THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM KATIA HAS DISRUPTED THE OCEANIC MONSOON TROUGH...ONLY ALLOWING A SMALL PORTION OF ITCZ TO REDEVELOPED FROM 11N46W TO 10N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 12W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 48W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 31N84W TO 28N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N91W 16N92W. PATCHES OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 90W-96W. ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND W OF 88W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TO DRIFT W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA...W OF 70W. THE E CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. 15-25 TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL STORM KATIA IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE TWO PROMINENT SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ONE EXTENDS FROM 24N41W TO 16N46W AND IS THE REMNANTS OF T.D.10. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 37W-39W. A SECOND TROUGH IS FROM 33N43W TO 27N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N51W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N29W. THE TRADEWINDS ARE QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE TWO SURFACE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA