000 AXNT20 KNHC 300516 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... T.D. TWELVE IS CENTERED NEAR 11.0N 30.0W AS OF 30/0300 UTC...OR ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE CENTER FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 30W-37W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA AND BARELY ENTERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W TO 18N20W. THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED TO T.D. TWELVE HAS DISRUPTED THE OCEANIC MONSOON TROUGH...ONLY ALLOWING A SMALL PORTION OF ITCZ TO REDEVELOPED FROM 11N43W TO 9N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 49W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT VOID OF PRECIPITATION IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N83W TO 28N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 22N90W 16N90W. PATCHES OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND W OF 88W. ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND W OF 88W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO DRIFT W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA...W OF 70W. THE E CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. 15-25 TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS T.D. TWELVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE TWO PROMINENT SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ONE EXTENDS FROM 23N39W TO 16N43W AND IS THE REMNANTS OF T.D.10. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 45W-47W. A SECOND TROUGH IS FROM 31N40W TO 26N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N33W. THE TRADEWINDS ARE QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA