000 AXNT20 KNHC 282355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... T.S. IRENE CONTINUES TO MOVE NNE TOWARDS NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS OF 29/0000 UTC IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 44.1N 72.1W...OR ABOUT 20 NM S OF ST. JOHNSBURY VERMONT MOVING NNE AT 23 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IRENE CONTINUES TO BECOME ELONGATED AND IS LOOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS A THREAT FOR MANY OF THE AREAS AFFECTED BY IRENE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. EVEN AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED...RIVER LEVELS CAN STILL RISE RESULTING IN FLOODING. T.S. JOSE IS CENTERED NEAR 34.0N 65.7W AS OF 29/0000 UTC MOVING N AT 17 KT...OR ABOUT 110 NM NNW OF BERMUDA . ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JOSE IS REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. CURRENTLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE CENTER FROM 32N-34N BETWEEN 66W-68W. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE S OF THE SYSTEM WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 63W-73W. A 1009 MB LOW IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N23W EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE CENTER FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 24W-31W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES W AT 10-15 KT. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 13N16W ALONG 11N23W 12N28W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE COAST FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 13W-18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W TO ERN TEXAS ALONG 28N89W 30N94W. WHILE MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE BASIN...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF A LINE FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 23N98W. STRONGER ACTIVITY IS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N89W TO 17N90W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT WEAKENS. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WWD WHICH WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES CURRENTLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SE GULF INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CARIBBEAN SEA... HIGH MOISTURE VALUES EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY COVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS HIGH MOISTURE IS HELPING SUPPORT MANY AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF CUBA...HAITI...FAR NRN COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NRN NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND SRN GUATEMALA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN OVER WATER W OF 72W...WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY N OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 74W-78W. THE ACTIVITY OVER NRN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CENTERED S OF ERN HISPANIOLA. NELY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM BELIZE TO WRN CUBA. THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT AND ELY TRADEWIND SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KT. EXPECT THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO FILTER WWD PUSHING THE HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SWLY SURFACE FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE WRN ATLC AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF T.S. IRENE WHICH IS WELL N OF THE AREA. T.S. JOSE IS ALSO CAUSING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 63W-73W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE FAR WRN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SE OF JOSE NEAR 28N62W PRODUCING A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE STORM. TO THE N...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 40N58W. FARTHER E...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SKIRTS THE NRN EXTENT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N39W 29N44W 29N50W. IT IS SUPPORTED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE ERN ATLC. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 19N37W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTER FROM 26N33W TO 16N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 30W-37W. A MORE ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N23W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N50W...WITH A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 20N13W. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON