000 AXNT20 KNHC 271153 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 34.7N 76.5W AT 27/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 4 NM NNE OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA MOVING N-NE AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 74 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 33N-37N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED/ SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A LARGER AREA FROM 30N-39N BETWEEN 70W-81W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N17W THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 16N24 TO 18N30W THEN THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 17N33W 12N42W TO 11N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 10N91W 12N18W TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 10W-21W AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 37W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW GEORGIA ACROSS ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI TO E LOUISIANA AND ALONG THE COAST FROM SW LOUISIANA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND COVERING THE N GULF WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER S/CENTRAL MEXICO GIVING THE SW GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH A 1013 MB HIGH OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO CIUDAD DEL CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS ARE UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONT OVER THE SE CONUS WILL DROP INTO THE FAR N GULF WATERS LATER THIS MORNING THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE MON. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SW GULF TUE AND WED. AN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD ALONG THE FAR N GULF COAST TUE AND WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND COMBINED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-79W AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1010 MB LOW OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 9N73W INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N81W TO OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-81W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THIS IS LEAVING MOST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING EXCEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-18N W OF 86W TO THE COAST OF BELIZE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE W TROPICAL N ATLC MOVES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IRENE HAS SHIFTED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LEAVING WEAK UPPER FLOW OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N58W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N60W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND SUPPORTING A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N62W AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 24N62W TO 32N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 27N56W TO 19N54W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 20N-23N SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 27N55W TO 30N57W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN N OF 20N E OF 60W IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 AND A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A 1011 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF T.D. TEN...IS CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 17N33W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE LOW FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 35W-38W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 55W FROM 12N-16N MOVING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE TROUGH TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. HURRICANE IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH SUN. CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF IRENE MON THROUGH WED. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE W TROPICAL N ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW/FG