000 AXNT20 KNHC 270000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 32.1N 77.2W AT 27/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 155 NM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING N AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER AS DEPICTED IN THE WSR-88D RADARS AND INFRARED IMAGERY. HURRICANE IRENE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE IMPACTING THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND WILL BE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 34.3W AT 26/2100 UTC MOVING NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING WITH THIS SYSTEM. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W TO 17N20W. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED ITCZ IN THE ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... EXCEPT FOR THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF...THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO HAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. E OF 85W AND N OF 25N...NW SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE IRENE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND A SECOND TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WINDS OR CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UNUSUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO HURRICANE IRENE HAS WEAKENED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WEST OF 80W. EAST OF 80W...WEAK E-SE TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT PREVAIL. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...NORTHERN COLUMBIA...AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA IN ASSOCIATION WITH TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON HEATING. THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN... THOUGH...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WINDS OR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY. NUMEROUS MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AS THE OUTFLOW FROM IRENE IS ADVECTING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVER THIS REGION IN UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE IRENE AS IT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE CAROLINAS. OF SECONDARY INTEREST IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH SYSTEMS. THREE SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED: ONE EXTENDING FROM 11N60W TO 14N55W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS...ONE EXTENDING FROM 23N53W TO 27N55W WITHIN SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND ONE EXTENDING FROM 25N59W TO 29N61W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN BETWEEN 10-14N AND 45-48W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHICH IS GENERATING E-NE TRADEWINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N59W...WHICH IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH AT 28N72W AND 18N45W. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA