000 AXNT20 KNHC 261805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 31.2N 77.5W AT 26/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 260 NM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING N AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA OF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD W OF 70W FROM 27N-35N. HURRICANE IRENE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY REACHING THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND MOVING ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 34.2W AT 26/1500 UTC MOVING NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 35W-40W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W TO 17N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED NEAR THE COAST OF GUYANA...SURINAME...AND FRENCH GUIANA FROM 7N51W TO NEAR 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU...THE GAMBIA...AND SENEGAL. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 28N E OF 85W. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 100 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MATAMOROS TO TAMPICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS ARE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS DOTTING THE SEASCAPE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR N GULF TOMORROW SATURDAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. CARIBBEAN SEA... LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WATERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 74W...ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD FROM HURRICANE IRENE. THIS FLOW IS DRAWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LINES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA WITHIN 120 NM OFFSHORE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 15N E OF 63W...GENERATED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH 200 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH 10-15 KT ESE WINDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE IRENE HEADING TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N58W AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 55W-60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 26N52W TO 22N53W GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN 50 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC NEAR 26N24W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD WESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF IRENE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA