000 AXNT20 KNHC 260601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 28.7N 77.3W AT 26/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 400 NM S-SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING N AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE W QUADRANT. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 71W-79W. HURRICANE IRENE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 250 NM. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SE U.S. CONUS. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.1N 33.1W AT 26/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 510 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. TEN COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRI. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 34W-38W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W TO 18N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 8N43W ALONG 9N55W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BEING DISRUPTED BY THE PRESENCE OF T.D. TEN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 49W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E GULF CENTERED NEAR 26N86W. ALTHOUGH MODERATELY DRY AIR DOMINATES THE E GULF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE FAR E GULF E OF 85W IN OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE IRENE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE E HALF OF THE U.S. CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TEXAS TO NEAR LAREDO TEXAS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS ARE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HURRICANE IRENE CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO PASS E OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL E OF THE GULF WATERS. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE E GULF TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE N GULF COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE DENSE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SOME CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO CUBA DUE TO THE OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE IRENE. THIS IS LEAVING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HURRICANE IRENE WILL MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN LATE SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE IRENE MOVING N AWAY FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IRENE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS JUST TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 24N59W AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 53W-59W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 26N51W TO 23N50W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 47W-50W AND W OF THE TROUGH WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS OF 24N52W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN N OF 20N E OF 65W IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE N OF AREA FRI EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO REGION S OF IRENE SUN THROUGH TUE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW