000 AXNT20 KNHC 252356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 27.7N 77.4W AT 26/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 460 NM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM FROM THE CENTER ALONG THE WRN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND WITHIN 300 NM ALONG THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FARTHER NE OF THE CENTER FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 70W-79W. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NW BAHAMAS. OUTER RAINBANDS HAVE ALSO ALREADY BEEN IMPACTING MUCH OF THE ERN COAST OF FLORIDA...AND WILL SOON BE REACHING THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS CENTERED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13.8N 32.4W AT 25/2100 UTC MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE CENTER FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 33W-36W. T.D. TEN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA BARELY EXTENDING OFF THE COAST TO 19N19W. THE ITCZ PICKS UP ON THE OTHER SIDE OF T.D. TEN ALONG 9N41W TO 9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 14W-19W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 47W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING LIGHT ELY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE NW AREA AND VERY WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE FAR SW GULF.. CYCLONIC FLOW HAS BEGUN OVER THE FAR ERN GULF AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE IRENE IN THE W ATLC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS UP TO 20 KTS NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. SOME OF THE EXTREME OUTER RAINBANDS HAVE BEEN IMPACTING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...SOME REACHING THE WRN COAST AND IMMEDIATE OFFSHORE WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO DOT THE FAR WRN GULF W OF 90W ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ALOFT...A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN GULF CENTERED NEAR 26N86W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE FAR NW GULF FROM SRN LOUISIANA TO NEAR 28N96W...WHICH MAY BE SUPPORTING SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA. EXPECT RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS HURRICANE IRENE MOVES NNW. CARIBBEAN SEA... A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IRENE IN THE W ATLC. W-SW FLOW COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF IRENE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN BEING SUCKED NWD AROUND IRENE. THIS IS SUPPORTING OVERCAST SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN TO HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALOFT...NLY FLOW COVERS THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN TURNING MORE ELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BECOMING SE...AND FINALLY SWLY ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT ENHANCED MOISTURE VALUES TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOVING INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE IRENE REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE W ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. OUTFLOW FROM IRENE DOMINATES THE FAR WRN ATLC ALOFT. TO THE STORMS EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 57W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 49W-57W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 25N51W TO 22N47W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 47W-52W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FARTHER E CENTERED NEAR 20N41W TO THE NW OF T.D. TEN IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC CENTERED AROUND A PAIR OF 1026 MB HIGHS NEAR 35N41W AND 35N48W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC WITH AXIS FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO NEAR 21N21N. INTERESTS IN THE ERN U.S. COAST SHOULD MONITOR HURRICANE IRENE AS IT MOVES NNW. T.D. TEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW WITH NO IMPACT TO LAND. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON