000 AXNT20 KNHC 251201 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 25.5N 76.5W AT 25/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF NASSAU...OR ABOUT 670 MI...1085 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 73W-79W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 63W-78W AND FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 70W-79W. HURRICANE IRENE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 225 NM. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RAINS WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...BRINGING THE MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL TO 6 TO 12 INCHES. THE 1007 MB LOW CENTERED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN AT 0900 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS CENTERED NEAR 12.4N 30.4W AT 25/0900 UTC MOVING W-NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. TEN COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 16N28W TO 13N33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 30W-35W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 21N16W THROUGH T.D. TEN TO 9N39W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 9N39W ALONG 7N47W 7N55W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DETACH FROM T.D. TEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS T.D. TEN BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 15N51W TO 12N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 11N-18N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W GULF W OF 90W ANCHORED OVER W TEXAS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FAR NW GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS AND OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 28N W OF 90W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N85W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE W YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. HURRICANE IRENE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND WILL REACH THE NW BAHAMAS LATER TODAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL E OF THE GULF WATERS. HOWEVER THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE E GULF THU THROUGH LATE FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE N GULF COAST EARLY SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE IRENE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IRENE REMAINS OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 71W-76W AND S OF 13N TO OVER VENEZUELA BETWEEN 62W-66W. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING THE AREA E OF 80W. HURRICANE IRENE CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL REACH THE NW BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SW ACROSS E CARIBBEAN LATE SUN BRINGING A RETURN OF E-SE TRADE WINDS E OF 75W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE IRENE MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IRENE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS JUST TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 25N55W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 28N52W TO 25N55W. A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N47W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 43W-47W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN N OF 25N E OF 65W IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1026 MB HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES MORE N-NW ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TODAY THEN N OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE MOVING OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW