000 AXNT20 KNHC 241752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.7N 74.3W AT 24/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS...OR ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF NASSAU MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 73W-76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 71W-76W TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 NM FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 NM FROM THE CENTER. IRENE IS A MAJOR HURRICANE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N25W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 24W-30W. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 9-13 KT. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE 1008 MB LOW AT 13N25W TO NEAR 10N28W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N38W TO 12N45W TO 13N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 24W-30W...AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 28W-33W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER W NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 48W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 30N. WINDS ARE PRIMARILY LIGHT AT 5-10 KT THROUGHOUT THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIMILAR SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF RADAR RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 23N. THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL HAVE FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS PRODUCING NE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N95W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS PRODUCING LINGERING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 77W-83W DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-68W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE IRENE IS A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH A SMALL WELL DEFINED EYE MOVING NW OVER THE BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N36W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 30N60W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 41W-44W. ELSEWHERE...AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 15N-30N E OF 30W HAMPERING THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 13N25W. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA