000 AXNT20 KNHC 240551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.3N 72.6W AT 24/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 350 NM SE OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 850 NM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 69W-73W. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 63W-74W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...TO OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 NM FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 180 NM FROM THE CENTER. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE 1007 MB LOW CENTERED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N22W WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 12N26W TO OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N24W. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 9-13 KT. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W TO 18N18W RESUMING SW OF THE 1007 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES NEAR 11N24W 12N13W TO 10N38W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N40W TO 8N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 25W-30W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 50W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 25N84W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 24/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR PANAMA CITY TO 25N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A 1014 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE SE GULF BETWEEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF AND AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E OF 86W ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE N GULF THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE IRENE CENTERED N OF HAITI AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAINS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE W YUCATAN CHANNEL GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS S PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW ACROSS BAHAMAS TONIGHT THROUGH THU AND AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG WINDS THROUGH MONA PASSAGE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WED MORNING THEN DIMINISH ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT CONTINUES TO HURRICANE IRENE CENTERED N OF HAITI...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR NEAR 33N76W ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IRENE COVERS THE AREA FROM S OF 30N BETWEEN 58W-75W WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE E NEAR 22N53W. THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 50W-53W. A SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB LOCATED IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N40W BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN N OF 25N IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM SW OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N52W ALONG 30N70W TO FLORIDA THEN WEAKENING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT THROUGH THU CONTINUING N THU NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE EXITING THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE FRI THROUGH EARLY SAT. 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