000 AXNT20 KNHC 240002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 20.9N 71.5W AT 23/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND...OR ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND. MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT MAKING IRENE A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20-22N BETWEEN 70W-73W. IN ADDITION BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 65W-71W. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N23W IS PRODUCING CLUSTERED STRONG CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS WEST AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W AND EXTENDS SW TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 13N23W. AN ITCZ IS NOTED FURTHER W FROM 12N38W TO 14N54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FURTHER N... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA THEN N CROSSING EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. LIGHT 5-10 KT WINDS COVERS THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERED CONVECTION WITH OUTBURSTS OF LIGHTING ACROSS LOUISIANA. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO A SURFACE TROUGH LIE ALONG THE FLORIDA W COAST FROM 30N82W TO 26N82W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 84W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS PRODUCING NE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED N OF HAITI PRODUCING LINGERING CONVECTION FROM ITS BANDS OVER PUERTO RICO AND WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT IRENE CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTING OUTBURSTS ARE OVER W CUBA ASSOCIATED TO CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN TEXAS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH AXIS E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...S OF PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE ALSO BEING AFFECTED BY THE CONVECTIVE BANDS OF IRENE...SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...IN THE W CARIBBEAN THERE IS MODERATE DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS AREA. OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND ALONG THEIR COASTS DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA. IN 24 HOURS...LA HISPANIOLA AND CUBA AS WELL AS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE CONVECTION OF IRENE BANDING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE IRENE CURRENTLY CATEGORY ONE...IS FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY TO A CATEGORY TWO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS MOVING WNW AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. SEE ABOVE SPECIAL FEATURES. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THERE IS A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 22N38W...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO IT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS