000 AXNT20 KNHC 230003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 68.7W AT 22/2350 UTC OR ABOUT 175 NM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AND ABOUT 115 NM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W-NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOW 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT MAKING IRENE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 67W-70W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W-71W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 64W-68W. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 16N-23N BETWEEN 62W-72W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...PORTIONS OF THE HAITI..N LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...MOVING TO OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 NM FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 NM TO THE NE OF THE CENTER. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR A 1006 MB LOW NEAR DAKAR SENEGAL ALONG 13N21W TO 15N38W. THE 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N33W HAS PULLED AWAY TOWARD THE NW FURTHER WEAKENING THE MONSOON TROUGH. OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC...HURRICANE IRENE CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW ALLOWING THE NE/SE TRADE WINDS TO RE-CONVERGE ALONG A LINE FROM 11N45W TO 12N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MAURITANIA BETWEEN 19N AND THE BORDER OF WESTERN SAHARA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A 1017 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO JUST N OF TAMPICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E CONUS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS S GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES MOVING INTO THE N GULF WATERS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE SE GULF BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE GULF AND AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N E OF 85W ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE N WATERS THROUGH SAT. HURRICANE IRENE CURRENTLY N OF MONA PASSAGE/E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS FORECAST TO TRACK NW JUST N OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT THEN ACROSS BAHAMAS TUE AND WED WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED IN THE GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE IRENE CENTERED N OF THE MONA PASSAGE/E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS ACROSS ROATAN ISLAND TO THE OVER CUBA NEAR HAVANA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND OVER HONDURAS MOVING INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING HAS GENERATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THAT ARE DRIFTING INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COASTS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W ALONG 11N78W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR THE PANAMA BORDER GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W TO NICARAGUA NEAR NEAR PUNTA GORDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE JUST N OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO HURRICANE IRENE CENTERED N OF THE MONA PASSAGE/E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E CONUS MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS S GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A LINE FROM BEYOND 32N77W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. THE ATLC BASIN N OF 25N IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM SW OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N52W ALONG 29N70W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA THEN WEAKENING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1010 MB LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 21N34W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW ALONG 18N35W TO 15N37W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LOW WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 21N31W TO 23N34W. HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE JUST TO THE N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TONIGHT THEN NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUE AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY WED AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW