000 AXNT20 KNHC 210600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 60.4W AT 21/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF ANTIGUA MOVING W AT 19 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD REGION OF THE ATLC AND EAST CARIBBEAN BASIN FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 56W-65W. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION...CENTERED INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA NEAR 17.5N 90.8W AT 21/0600 UTC MOVING W-NW AT 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE HEAVY AND STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA A SOUTHERN MEXICO... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS GUATEMALA...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... DUE TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED TO T.S. IRENE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES...THERE IS NO CONVERGENCE OF NE AND SE TRADE WINDS...THUS THERE IS NO ITCZ DEPICTED ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W ALONG A BROAD ELONGATED 1008 MB LOW NEAR 16N27W TO 11N33W TO 8N42W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-19N E OF 30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 30W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER OMEGA RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A DRY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ALOFT ACROSS THE NRN AND W AREAS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE AND S CENTRAL BASIN S OF 26N E OF 90W ASSOCIATED TO WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 94W ASSOCIATED TO THE OUTER CONVECTION FROM T.S. HARVEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS DOTTING THE BASIN. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS T.S. IRENE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND T.S. HARVEY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE EAST AND WEST CARIBBEAN BASINS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE SW BASIN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-76W ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NICARAGUA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE 5-15 KT EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. AS HARVEY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN INLAND OVER MEXICO...T.S. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY...THEN TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS T.S. IRENE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON IRENE. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N W OF 70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N34W LEAVING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. LONG RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON TUESDAY ...TO OVER CUBA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA