000 AXNT20 KNHC 201722 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM HARVEY IS CENTERED NEAR 16.8N 87.6W OR ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY...OR ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE MOVING W 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT3/ WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 86W-90W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 82W-88W. T.S. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS HEADING TO THE LESSER ANTILLES ANALYZED FROM 19N53W TO 14N55W TO 9N56W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A 1007 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 53W-59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO W OF THE LOW CENTER OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 58W-62W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND OVER PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM TODAY. A BROAD 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 26W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 17W-21W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WNW AT ABOUT 10 KT INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW NEAR 16N25W TO 10N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 28W-31W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 30W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W PRODUCING 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 82W-84W. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE W GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF CENTERED N OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 23N DUE TO T.S. HARVEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY IS T.S. HARVEY IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS MOVING WEST PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION THAT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 69W-75W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N45W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 29N75W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY AIR ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 20N-26N E OF 30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA