000 AXNT20 KNHC 191159 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT AT 19/1200 UTC IS NEAR 15.6N 83.7W...OR ABOUT 48 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ALONG THE BORDERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT T.D. EIGHT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3 FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. SOME RAINSHOWERS ALREADY HAVE GONE INLAND IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IT PASSES ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND IT REACHES THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N73W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 12N92W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N90W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W FROM 13N TO 22N. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND 28W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY BE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD/ WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N46W TO A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 MPH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ANY WRITTEN INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES IS LISTED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. ALL THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE SPECIAL FEATURES AT THIS TIME. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE DEPICTION ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SPLIT MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 18W AS A RESULT OF A VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 19W/20W. ONE SECTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA. THE OTHER SECTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 19W/20W TROPICAL WAVE TO 12N37W AND 14N44W. NO ITCZ IS GIVEN BECAUSE OF THE DISRUPTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE LACK OF NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW AND SOUTHEASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N90W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN LOUISIANA HAVE DISSIPATED...LEAVING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N73W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 73W WITH THE TROUGH. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 73W IN TRADEWIND FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF JAMAICA ALONG 17N BETWEEN 75W AND WESTERN CUBA...CAUGHT UP IN BETWEEN THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH THAT REACHES THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AFTER EXITING THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH REACHES THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W 25N72W...TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 21N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N57W TO 22N64W...BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 53W AND 63W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N15W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 28N16W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 20W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT