000 AXNT20 KNHC 190609 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DEVELOPED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AT 19/0300 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT AT 19/0600 UTC IS NEAR 15.5N 82.9W...OR ABOUT 36 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ALONG THE BORDERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS/ NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT T.D. EIGHT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3 FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IT PASSES ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND IT REACHES THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N72W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 12N91W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N89W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W FROM 13N TO 22N. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 18W AND 25W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY BE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD/ WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N45W 15N43W 12N41W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 MPH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ANY WRITTEN INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES IS LISTED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. ALL THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE SPECIAL FEATURES AT THIS TIME. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE DEPICTION ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SPLIT MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 16W AS A RESULT OF A VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 18W/19W. ONE SECTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA. THE OTHER SECTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 18W/19W TROPICAL WAVE TO 12N30W AND 12N44W. NO ITCZ IS GIVEN BECAUSE OF THE DISRUPTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE LACK OF NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW AND SOUTHEASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W...AND FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 44W AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 24W AND 33W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N89W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SPILLING INTO THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 91W AND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. THIS IS HAPPENING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW AND A BROAD SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF JAMAICA ALONG 17N BETWEEN 75W AND WESTERN CUBA...CAUGHT UP IN BETWEEN THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH THAT REACHES THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AFTER EXITING THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH REACHES THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W 24N74W...TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 22N77W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N57W TO 24N62W...BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N14W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 28N16W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 20W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT