000 AXNT20 KNHC 161148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT AT 16/0900 UTC IS NEAR 36.4N 59.6W...ABOUT 360 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. GERT IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 19 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. THE STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE FROM 35N TO 37N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N24W 12N23W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N63W 19N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 61W AND 69W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N16W AT THE AFRICA COAST... TO 13N20W 10N36W 11N43W 10N45W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N45W TO 6N52W AND 6N56W AT THE COAST OF SURINAME. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 10N19W...FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W...FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W TO THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W...AND THEN IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 92W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 32N68W 27N74W 24N82W. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N91W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 101W ARE RELATED TO AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N98W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 18N83W...TOWARD NORTHERN GUATEMALA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO 19N79W...ABOUT 40 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N66W 25N71W 22N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO HAITI. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS SPREADING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF 69W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W...BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 75W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W TO THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 27N74W AND 24N82W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 25N35W AND 13N42W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT