000 AXNT20 KNHC 160612 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT AT 16/0300 UTC IS NEAR 34.7N 61.6W...ABOUT 215 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. GERT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 34N TO 35N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 61W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N22W 11N21W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. THIS PRECIPITATION MOST PROBABLY IS MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAN TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 23W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON TOP OF THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT RUNS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS BETWEEN SAINT LUCIA AND SAINT VINCENT...PASSING JUST ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF GUADELOUPE...TO 19N62W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N17W AT THE AFRICA COAST...TO 13N20W 9N30W 11N44W. NO ITCZ IS ON THE MAP BECAUSE OF NO NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW AT THE MOMENT. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W...FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W TO THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 92W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 31N64W 27N74W 25N80W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N92W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE RELATED TO AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N96W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 18N83W...TOWARD NORTHERN GUATEMALA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO 18N79W TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N66W 25N71W 22N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN HAITI AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ON TOP OF THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS SPREADING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W...BEYOND CENTRAL COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W TO THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 31N64W 27N74W 25N80W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 25N35W AND 13N42W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT