000 AXNT20 KNHC 151201 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT AT 15/1200 UTC IS NEAR 31.5N 63.3W...ABOUT 85 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. GERT IS MOVING NORTHWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W...TO THE SOUTH OF GERT. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W. ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAIL THE TROPICAL STORM...FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 59W AND 60W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W FROM 10N T0 17N. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W...AND FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MUST BE REACHING BARBADOS. THE ISLANDS FROM SAINT VINCENT TO DOMINICA MAY BE THE NEXT ONES FOR THE STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF AND CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD. A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N93W BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 95W AND THE MEXICO COAST. THE STRONG PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO FOUR TO FIVE HOURS AGO STILL IS INTACT. IT JUST HAS MOVED A BIT AND RE-DEVELOPED. IT IS TO THE NORTH OF 11N BETWEEN 88W AND 100W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N17W AT THE AFRICA COAST... TO 15N20W 10N30W 11N37W AND 10N43W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 10N43W 10N50W...TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 8N58W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TRAILING PAST THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW REACHES AT LEAST 27N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 23N IN SOME CLUSTERS OF CLOUD FORMATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 17N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N93W BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 95W AND THE MEXICO COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS... TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N91W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF TROPICAL STORM GERT...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N81W ABOUT 190 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA... ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO SOUTHERN HAITI. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W...AND FROM PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BETWEEN 67W AND 75W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 73W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TRAILING PAST THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. FRONTAL BOUNDARIES STILL ARE INLAND FROM THE CAROLINAS TO ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. THE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 25N61W SIX HOURS AGO NOW IS A SURFACE TROUGH. THE CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION OPENED ITSELF INTO A TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS ALONG 60W/61W FROM 22N TO 27N. ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAIL TROPICAL STORM GERT...FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 59W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N47W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 54W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N31W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N34W AND 11N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. THIS PRECIPITATION BECOMES ISOLATED FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N26W TO 27N37W... TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N49W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N70W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT