000 AXNT20 KNHC 150553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT AT 15/0600 UTC IS NEAR 30.8N 63.4W...ABOUT 113 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W...TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF GERT. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W. ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAIL THE TROPICAL STORM...FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 59W AND 60W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 10N T0 17N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N91W BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N16W AT THE AFRICA COAST... TO 15N20W 10N30W 10N35W AND 11N42W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 7N42W 8N51W 8N56W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N20W 7N30W 6N40W 7N45W 8N54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A.... NOT QUITE TO THE EAST COAST YET...FROM FLORIDA NORTHWARD. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL PLAINS/WATERS OF ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N...AND FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 17N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N91W BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO... AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N92W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF TROPICAL STORM GERT...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N80W ABOUT 150 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HAITI...TO SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W...AND FROM PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BETWEEN 67W AND 79W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AROUND THE NORTHERN WATERS OF HISPANIOLA...AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W...BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 11.5N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST ALONG 76W AND 79W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 76W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A....NOT QUITE TO THE EAST COAST YET...FROM FLORIDA NORTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARE SUPPORTED BY THE TROUGH...THEY ARE INLAND STILL. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. THE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 29N46W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N44W AND 18N42W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N32W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N32W AND 14N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 37W AND 38W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N25W TO 28N33W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N48W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N70W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT