000 AXNT20 KNHC 130524 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CENTERED NEAR 36.6N 61.3W AT 13/0300 UTC 0R ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MOVING E-NE AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUST TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N49W IS MOVING WNW AT 18 KT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 13-18 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD EXTENDS FROM 30N55W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 26N57W TO 23N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. CONTINUED SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED ALONG 83W FROM 11N-21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF CUBA AND OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 80W-85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF W AFRICA NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES SW TO 12N30W TO 9N41W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N-17N BETWEEN 29W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH TO FORT MYERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 81W-83W. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER S MEXICO S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS NEAR 30N100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THE SE GULF. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS... AND EL SALVADOR. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH CONVECTION TO ALSO ADVECT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BESIDES THE FOUR SYSTEMS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 28N66W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N38W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 27N50W ALSO PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOWS TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA