000 AXNT20 KNHC 120515 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 850 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N37W WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING NW FROM THE LOW TO 21N43W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 9-13 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 39W-43W. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 225 NM S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N26W WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING N ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 19N23W. HE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 13-17 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 25W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO W OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 28W-31W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 20N77W TO 12N78W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 73W-75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER E CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 75W-78W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 21N16W AND CONTINUES THROUGH BOTH SURFACE LOWS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES...AT 11N26W AND 14N37W...THEN CONTINUES S TO 7N45W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO MIAMI WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. A 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 26N92W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER S FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THE SE GULF. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA...AND THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-83W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W NICARAGUA...W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N72W 29N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 25N64W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1014 MB LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 26N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 21N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 37N28W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 27N45W. EXPECT THE TWO SPECIAL FEATURE LOWS TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA