000 AXNT20 KNHC 102356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE. HOWEVER...THE 1010 MB LOW IS WELL DEFINED AND HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 9-13 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS SE OF THE LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 12N27W TO 8N31W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION NW OF THE LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 17N31W TO 11N35W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED FROM 19N60W THROUGH THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS TO 14N65W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE WAVE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 62W-71W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF W AFRICA JUST N OF DAKAR SENEGAL THROUGH THE 1010 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES CONTINUING ALONG 9N40W TO 9N52W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N52W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. A SECOND 1010 MB LOW IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 10N16W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-14N E OF 21W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR 28N89W COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR NW GULF WHERE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER SE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FAR NE GULF EXTENDING ACROSS JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR CEDAR KEY TO 27N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE E GULF FROM 24N-29N E OF 87W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO THE W GULF NEAR 26N92W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E AS THE TROUGHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHARPENS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INDUCING A WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS BETWEEN FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 9N FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER JAMAICA AND MOST OF CUBA MOVING INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FRESH TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 76W-83W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E-SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO WEAKEN. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU AND FRI. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE FRI AND SAT BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE WESTERN ONE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE EASTERN MOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N75W ALONG 29N77W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 31N74W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 24N63W AND EXTENDS W ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N48W TO 26N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 45W-56W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N33W TO 21N43W LEAVING THE E ATLC UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY ESE AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FAR W ATLC WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY FRI BEFORE LIFTING OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NE ON SAT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD INTO AREA FRI AND SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW