000 AXNT20 KNHC 101204 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 13N29W TO 22N32W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF 13N29W AS A 1010 MB LOW...WHICH IS PRIMARILY THE FOCUS OF THE MONSOON TROUGH GYRE ENCOMPASSING THE AREA FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN 21W-43W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOCATED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 22W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 29W-32W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 12N62W TO 19N57W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N56W AND IS QUICKLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS AND ARE MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM 16N60W TO 15N66W. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 61W-66W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W ALONG 13N28W TO 09N34W TO 07N50W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 07N50W TO 06N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 13W-20W...AND FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 23W-26W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 31W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 25N87W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD TO THE TEXAS COAST REMAINING PART OF A LARGER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ENCOMPASSING NORTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC WATERS ALONG 24N AND IT REMAINS ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE SE GULF NEAR 24N83W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF W OF 88W...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING E OF 88W. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF ALONG 24N/25N THROUGH THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD TO 27N BY THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N92W. CONVECTIVE NOTED EARLIER HAS WANED AND ONLY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN N OF 20N W OF 80W AND OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 09N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 11N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 61W-68W. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG 24N IN THE W ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W ATLC WATERS W OF 73W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF EMILY IS SURROUNDING A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N49W WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE LOWER PRESSURE AREA TO 28N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 45W-56W IN A RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 24N BETWEEN 48W AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 32N28W TO 20N48W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN