000 AXNT20 KNHC 100544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 12N28W TO 17N28W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF 12N28W AS A 1012 MB LOW...WHICH IS PRIMARILY THE FOCUS OF THE MONSOON TROUGH GYRE ENCOMPASSING THE AREA FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN 20W-45W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOCATED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 20W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 28W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N59W TO 17N59W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N54W AND IS QUICKLY LOSING IDENTITY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED NW OF THE WAVE AXIS AND ARE MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N55W TO 15N64W. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 60W-62W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO 14N21W THEN RESUMES NEAR 11N31W TO 09N40W TO 10N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 10W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 31W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 26N96W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD TO THE TEXAS COAST REMAINING PART OF A LARGER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ENCOMPASSING NORTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC WATERS ALONG 24N AND IT REMAINS ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE SE GULF NEAR 24N84W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF W OF 87W THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING E OF 87W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF ALONG 24N/25N THROUGH THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD TO 27N BY THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N89W. THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS INLAND OVER WESTERN HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER EASTERN CUBA AND WEST OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N79W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 09N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 12N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N55W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY... INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLAND BETWEEN 14N-17N. OTHERWISE... EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG 24N/25N IN THE W ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING SQUALL LINE THAT IS BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE W ATLC WATERS W OF 75W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF EMILY IS SURROUNDING A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N50W WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE LOWER PRESSURE AREA TO 22N BETWEEN 45W-57W. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THAT AREA IN A RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 23N BETWEEN 44W AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 32N28W TO 20N44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN