000 AXNT20 KNHC 081806 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 18N23W 13N24W 9N25W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS 9N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 31W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N46W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N49W...TO 8N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N69W IN THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 15N71W...TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO CENTRAL COASTAL NICARAGUA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COASTAL RAINSHOWERS MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE TROUGH THAN TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 20N TO 22N4W 19N16W 13N20W 10N33W 12N47W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED MORE TOWARD CENTRAL MEXICO...AND NOW IS NEAR 22N103W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO FROM 20N TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUSIANA...IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHERN BAHAMAS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N72W...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. A LOWER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF 16N70W 11N62W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING TROUGH PASS THROUGH 31N74W TO 27N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N80W TO 27N83W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N71W 27N75W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N72W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER BEYOND JAMAICA TO THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES 33N43W TO 28N52W AND 23N56W. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY MORE ENERGY FROM THE WEST DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 28N49W TO 29N55W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N55W BEYOND 32N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W 28N44W 26N50W...AND FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A SURFACE SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 21N50W 17N55W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 25N33W 22N46W...THROUGH A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N62W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N77W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT