000 AXNT20 KNHC 081158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 09N24W TO 18N22W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF 11N23W...WHICH IS PRIMARILY A MONSOON TROUGH GYRE ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP-LAYERED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOCATED SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 20W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 08N50W TO 18N45W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N48W AND AN AREA OF HIGHER TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 48W-53W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB...OR LOW TO MID-LEVEL...TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 50W-53W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N71W TO 19N68W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 1017 MB WESTERN ATLC HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE WAVE NEAR 24N64W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W ALONG 08N34W TO 11N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 20W-24W...AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 25W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SW TO OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N94W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC WATERS ALONG 25N. THE RIDGE AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF N OF 22N W OF 85W. WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE REMNANTS OF EMILY ACROSS THE W ATLC AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED S OF 27N E OF 85W. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-89W AND OVER THE SW GULF S OF 20N. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF ALONG 25N THROUGH TUESDAY WITH S-SE WINDS INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W AS LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS INTO WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BISECTS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N62W TO 21N73W TO 15N81W THEN OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W. MOST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OFF THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 83W-87W. FARTHER SOUTH...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 80W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHEAR LINE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 56W-65W THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG 25N IN THE W ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE REMNANT SURFACE CIRCULATION OF EMILY IS ANALYZED AS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 29N75W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC CENTERED NEAR 44N43W AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N40W THEN CONTINUES ALONG 28N50W TO 29N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS SW FROM THE COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 28N49W TO 24N57W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 44N18W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 32N28W TO 23N43W THEN WESTWARD TO A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N64W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN