000 AXNT20 KNHC 072329 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY IS NEAR 31.1N 74.1W AT 07/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...OR ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM W OF BERMUDA. EMILY IS MOVING NE 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. EMILY HAS WEAKENED AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LAST FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 WAS ISSUED AT 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR EAST ATLC FROM 19N19W TO 11N22W...MOVING W 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER S ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC FROM 18N45W TO 11N47W...MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES OF MOISTURE ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT WITH A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD AT 13N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SW OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 47W-51W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 20N62W TO 14N66W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. SLIGHT CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A LARGE AREA FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 56W-70W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO 10N22W TO 10N30W TO 12N41W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N41W TO 16N50W TO 16N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 22W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER S FLORIDA FROM STUART TO FORT MYERS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA S OF 27N. CLUSTERS OF AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER N FLORIDA AND CENTRAL FLORIDA N OF 28N. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 25N. WEAK 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED WITH FAIR WEATHER. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 90W-92W. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO BEYOND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 79W-84W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 75W-84W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS E OF 80W. EXPECT MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE N AND W CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.D. EMILY IS NE OF THE N BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. A 1020 MN HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 24N63W. FURTHER NE... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W TO 30N47W TO 31N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 44W-60W. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N27W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 25N40W TO THE N BAHAMAS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PRODUCE CONVECTION N OF 23N BETWEEN 40W-60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA