000 AXNT20 KNHC 062354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY IS NEAR 26.9N 78.1W AT 06/2100 UTC. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY IS TRANSMITTED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY IS UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25...FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS...AND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS OF EMILY HAVE REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 78W-83W TO INCLUDE W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...S FLORIDA...AND THE N BAHAMAS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 22N16W TO 15N18W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE DIAGNOSTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 17W-24W DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND VORTICITY ALOFT. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 37W-44W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 18N54W 12N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12-18N BETWEEN 58W-63W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 16N16W ON THE W COAST OF AFRICA AND CONTINUES SW TO 13N20W TO 12N30W TO 12N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N34W TO 16N50W TO 14N60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... T.D. EMILY IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ...AND S FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W PRODUCING LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 88W-91W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 20N98W. ISOLATED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER INLAND MEXICO FROM 16N-28N BETWEEN 96W-105W. EXPECT EMILY TO MOVE E OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO BEYOND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 12N. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 84W-86W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS E OF 80W. EXPECT MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.D. EMILY IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER E... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 74W-76W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 25N50W TO 25N68W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DIP S TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PRODUCE CONVECTION N OF 26N BETWEEN 45W-60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA