000 AXNT20 KNHC 061805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N78W...IN BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...THE ABACOS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER NORTHWARD TO 29N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N79W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA COAST. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS EN ROUTE IN ORDER TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD SLOWLY AND PRODUCE SQUALLS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THEN... INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SUNDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 16W/17W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. THE DIAGNOSTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 21W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N36W 10N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 38W AND 45W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N51W 11N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 22N TO 23N3W 19N15W...AND FROM 16N18W TO 12N24W AND 11N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N36W TO 16N43W AND 15N50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N97W JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 22N90W JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 26N82W NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK AND COMPARATIVELY FLAT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO ANGUILLA TO 16N70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA THAT IS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...INCLUDING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE EAST OF 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ANTIGUA TO BARBUDA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W SINCE 08/1100 UTC. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA HAVE BEEN WARMING WITH TIME. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT SOME RAINSHOWERS REMAIN THERE. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 80W AND CENTRAL AMERICA...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ADJACENT TO AND TO THE NORTH OF PANAMA...AND TO THE EAST OF COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BLOWING WESTWARD OFF THE WATER AND REACHING THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND CUBA BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...WITH THE FLOW EVENTUALLY REACHING NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THE WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 80W REACHING CENTRAL AMERICA. BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 30N60W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N58W TO 34N65W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FIRST ONE PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 27N40W. THE RIDGE THAT IS BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS IS BEING SQUEEZED BY THE 32N57W 30N60W TROUGH AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD AT A RATE THAT IS COMPARATIVELY FASTER THAN THE SPEED OF THE 32N40W 27N40W TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N31W... TO 26N45W AND 27N72W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT