000 AXNT20 KNHC 060555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE REMNANTS OF EMILY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. CURRENTLY A 1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED N OF CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N77W MOVING NW-N NEAR 10-12 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER FROM NEAR 27N74W TO THE LOW CENTER AND ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO 22N79W. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 0204 UTC INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY W OF WHERE CURRENTLY DEPICTED AND WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED ON THE NEXT ANALYSIS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIED DOWN A LITTLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION STILL REMAINS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 74W-79W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE ERN TRPCL ATLC ALONG 18N30W TO 11N32W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SLIGHT CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS ALSO INDICATED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC ALONG 17N50W TO 10N52W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS AHEAD OF A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 49W-53W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W ALONG 10N19W TO 12N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N34W ALONG 15N46W TO 12N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 14W-17W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 20W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FAIRLY DRY TONIGHT INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT BEING DRAWN FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SRN MEXICO NEAR 18N96W WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO S FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN TEXAS IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1013 MB HIGH S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N91W. WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 82W-84W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE N CENTRAL GULF N OF 29N BETWEEN 87W-93W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THIS TIME. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM S OF CUBA NEAR 21N80W TO 17N84W. HOWEVER...NO STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT DUE TO STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DRY AIR IS BEING WRAPPED AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER HONDURAS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS E OF THE TROUGH S OF CUBA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 77W-79W ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO E OF COAST RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH NE-E TRADEWIND FLOW NEAR 20 KT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS TRADEWIND FLOW FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 61W-66W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE ERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY ARE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FAR WRN ATLC FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 74W-79W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY IS ALSO FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 71W-73W. A LARGE AREA OF DUST IS TO THE E OF THIS AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER BETWEEN 55W-65W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED TO THE N NEAR 32N76W WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE SRN GULF EXTENDS TO THE NW BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NE ALONG 58W THAT EXTENDS SWD TO 30N SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA THAT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 53W-60W. A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 30N44W TO 19N62W. BROAD UPPER RIDING COVERS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 22N38W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 27N42W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 35N14W. ANOTHER AREA OF AFRICAN DUST EXTENDS N OF THE TROPICAL WAVES FROM 15N-20N E OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON