000 AXNT20 KNHC 051152 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE REMNANTS OF EMILY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA ALONG 19N76W OVER JAMAICA TO NEAR 17N79W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-21N W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 78W. A BROAD AREA OF DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN/SW ATLC WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE S TIP OF HAITI NEAR 18N74W INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 25N66W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND SE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD 15 MPH.. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED FROM 15N30W TO 6N20W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS WITH A CURVATURE OBSERVED IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200/250 SW OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 15N41W TO 11N47W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS INDICATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS WITH A SLIGHT CURVATURE OBSERVED IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR DAKAR SENEGAL TO 12N24W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N31W ALONG 14N39W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 51W-56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 7N-11N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED OVER E TEXAS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A 1015 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N91W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE GULF N OF 23N. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HIGHER PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BY MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE REMNANTS OF EMILY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 17N76W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 10N91W THEN INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF EMILY...WILL MOVE N-NW OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE BAHAMAS TODAY THROUGH SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE REMNANTS OF EMILY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH ABOUT 425 NM SW OF THE AZORES N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N41W ALONG 28N57W 27N72W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF EMILY...WILL MOVE N-NW OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE BAHAMAS TODAY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN. A LOW PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND COULD REORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL RE-BUILD WESTWARD AS THE ABOVE LOW MOVES N OF THE AREA LATE SUN THROUGH TUE. THE CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE W TROPICAL ATLC LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW