000 AXNT20 KNHC 050556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE REMNANTS OF EMILY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE N CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 16N76W. A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN/SW ATLC FROM 16N-26N BETWEEN 65W-78W. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER MOST OF HISPANIOLA... E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR RAIN MAKER FOR THE AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT TODAY. HOWEVER... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NW NEAR 13 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 15N37W TO 11N45W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS INDICATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS WITH A SLIGHT CURVATURE OBSERVED IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W S ALONG 8N19W TO 11N32W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N47W ALONG 9N55W TO 11N61W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N E OF 30W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 49N-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED OVER E TEXAS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ LOUISIANA BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN JUST OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO FORT MYERS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A 1015 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N91W LEAVING THE MOST OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BY MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE REMNANTS OF EMILY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR THE S PENINSULA OF HAITI AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA S OF PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 72W TO COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E PORTION. THE REMNANTS OF EMILY WILL MOVE NW OF THE CARIBBEAN TOWARDS THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI AND FRI EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE REMNANTS OF EMILY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 70W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 400 NM SW OF THE AZORES N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W ALONG 27N67W 27N75W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMNANTS OF EMILY WILL MOVE NW OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY EARLY FRI EVENING. IT WILL THEN REACH THE NW BAHAMAS EARLY SAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT ON SAT. THE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NW OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT BEFORE TURNING NE AND LIFTING N OF AREA EARLY SUN NIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE W TROPICAL LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AND CONTINUE W THROUGH TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW