000 AXNT20 KNHC 040600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 71.3W AT 04/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 30 NM SSE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 105 NM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MOVING W AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 17N68W TO 16N71W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 66W-72W. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 16N34W TO 9N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED THE UPPER LEVELS AS INDICATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS BUT REMAINS RATHER ILL DEFINED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF THE AFRICAN COAST S OF DAKAR SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W ALONG 13N21W TO 10N26W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N40W ALONG 8N50W TO 9N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-16N E OF 25W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED NEAR AUGUSTA GEORGIA. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE DIED OUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING OVER FAR E GULF WATERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FLORIDA COAST FROM TAMPA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. AN UPPER LOW IS WELL INLAND OVER S MEXICO W OF MEXICO CITY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING N OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH SW WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SW GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 20N-24N W OF 95W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A 1013 MB HIGH LOCATED AT 04/0300 UTC NEAR 27N90W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO OVER THE FAR W ATLC SAT AND SUN AND DISRUPT THE ATLC RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM SW ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL GULF MON AS EMILY LIFTS NE OF THE REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM EMILY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FORCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER CUBA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 21N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 81W-84W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THESE TWO UPPER RIDGES ARE INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NE HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION S OF OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BUT CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-81W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM EMILY DOT THE E INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 63W-74W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS HISPANIOLA/CUBA THU THEN MOVE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH 32N68W TO JUST E OF THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N74W AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N79W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO NEAR BERMUDA. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH ABOUT 400 NM SW OF THE AZORES N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N41W ALONG 27N64W 26N77W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM EMILY IN THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO CROSS BETWEEN HISPANIOLA/CUBA THU AND MOVE INTO THE SW ATLC THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING AND INTENSIFY SLOWLY AND REMAIN OVER THE W ATLC OFF FLORIDA THROUGH SUN MORNING THEN MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW