000 AXNT20 KNHC 031804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS NEAR 16.8N 70.3W AT 03/1800 UTC. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EMILY IS MOVING WESTWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY IS TRANSMITTED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY IS UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25...FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE LAND AND WATER AREAS THAT GO FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. SABANA DE LA MAR ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO REPORTED ABOUT 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD THAT ENDS AT 03/1200 UTC. T.S. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N31W 11N33W. THE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS FORECAST A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 29W AND 36W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 55W/56W AT 03/0600 UTC HAS DAMPENED OUT IN THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT. THE WAVE WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 03/1200 UTC ANALYSIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 19N TO 19N7W 14N14W 15N20W 10N37W TO 7N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N44W TO 6N53W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AFRICA AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... PLEASE FOLLOW THE FORECAST TRACK OF T.S. EMILY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ITS FORECAST TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TAKE IT FROM CUBA TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK MAY MEAN SOME AMOUNT OF WIND AND PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND POSSIBLY OTHER AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME TO 20N100W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 90W AND 103W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 94W AND MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE AREA THAT IS COVERED BY THE 20N100W CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W. A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N90W IN THE CENTER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S. EMILY IS MOVING FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TOWARD WESTERN HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. T.S. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 29N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... TO 25N73W TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA NEAR 23N78W...TO A CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 40 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 18N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS FROM 20N TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND BETWEEN 78W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO A 29N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N73W TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA NEAR 23N78W...TO A CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 40 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 18N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N69W 30N74W 28N80W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N75W 26N79W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N68W 27N74W 25N79W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 57W AND 70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N29W...TO 32N41W 28N56W AND 24N65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT