000 AXNT20 KNHC 030540 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 67.5W AT 03/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 115 NM SSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 190 NM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 65W-67W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 63W-68W. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 19N32W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N34W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 35W-38W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 19N53W 14N55W 10N53W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/ CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W S TO 14N19W THEN W ALONG 12N27W THROUGH THE 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N34W TO 7N43W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO BE DISTORTED BY TROPICAL STORM EMILY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N E OF 17W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF 10N BETWEEN 18W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF N OF 24N AND IS ANCHORED OVER N ALABAMA. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE MOVING OVER THE FAR E GULF WATERS BY THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THE HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA E OF A LINE FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO KEY WEST FLORIDA. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 23N91W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-96W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA WITH A 1013 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N92W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SAT. TROPICAL STORM EMILY WILL DISRUPT THIS RIDGE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD IN THE W ATLC THIS WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM EMILY IN THE CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS S PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA. BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM EMILY DOT THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 74W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES TOWARD HISPANIOLA LATER THIS MORNING THEN CROSSING HISPANIOLA BY WED EVENING INTO THE SW ATLC ON THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS TROUGH 32N73W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH AT 03/0300 UTC ENTERING THE W ATLC FROM A STATIONARY BOUNDARY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 31N69W ALONG 30N77W TO JUST OFF NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF A LINE FROM 29N64W TO 26N74W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ABOUT 350 NM SW OF THE AZORES WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N37W ALONG 27N52W THEN W ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS OBSERVED ON THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM 12N-27N E OF 50W WITH A NARROWER SWATH BEING FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 50W-70W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO NEAR 29N THU. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WILL STALL THEN DISSIPATE WED. TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE NW FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN INTO THE BAHAMAS THU THROUGH SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW