000 AXNT20 KNHC 020544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS UPGRADED AT 01/2330 UTC AND IS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 63.5W AT 02/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 230 NM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MOVING W AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 15N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 9N55W TO 11N56W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING A BROAD AREA FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 54W-64W. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE N WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-6 INCHES EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 12N49W 9N51W 5N52W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 6N-10N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR DAKAR SENEGAL ALONG 12N21W 11N28W TO 11N42W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS BEING DISTORTED BY TROPICAL STORM EMILY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N26W TO 7N24W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 37W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N28W TO 11N31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE N GULF N OF 24N AND IS ANCHORED OVER W ARKANSAS/E OKLAHOMA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE THE REMAINDER OF THE SE CONUS TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A LOW AND STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY IS INLAND OVER S GEORGIA TO S MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND OVER THE N GULF WATERS N OF 28N E OF 94W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE S GULF EXTENDING FROM THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N E OF 94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC WITH A 1015 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 27N86W AT 02/0300 UTC LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE N GULF AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM EMILY IN THE FAR E CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ANCHORED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THESE UPPER RIDGES ARE INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W NE TO E CUBA NEAR SANTIAGO DE CUBA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO OVER PANAMA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N79W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA. BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM EMILY DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED THEN INTO THE SW ATLC WED NIGHT. E TRADES WILL INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE THU AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIPPING S OVER THE E CONUS AND INTO THE W ATLC N OF 30N W OF 75W SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BUT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL ALONG 29N75W TO BEYOND 32N65W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ABOUT 400 NM SW OF THE AZORES AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W ALONG 28N62W THEN W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS OBSERVED ON THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM 11N-24N E OF 50W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG 28N THROUGH WED. TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WNW FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN INTO THE BAHAMAS THU THROUGH SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW