000 AXNT20 KNHC 020005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FINALLY FORMED NEAR THE ISLAND OF DOMINICA...MARKING THE FORMATION OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 62.0W AT 01/2330Z. EMILY IS TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 57W-63W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED FROM 15N47W TO 5N48W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE DATA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N BETWEEN 48W-58W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 21N17W ALONG 16N24W 12N31W 10N39W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT TO WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 22W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE E AND SE CONUS EXTENDING ITS AXIS INTO THE NE GULF. THIS FEATURE SUPPORT A FRONTAL/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITTING INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NORTHERN AND NE WATERS N OF 27N E OF 94W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA... AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI... ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFTING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING...GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA... ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THIS EVENING ...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES BETWEEN DOMINICA AND MARTINIQUE WITH GUSTY WINDS...SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW BASIN S OF 12N W OF 73W DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW BASIN N OF 15N W OF 80W...ASSOCIATED TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC BASIN...ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ABOUT 330 NM SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N34W. THIS FEATURE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS WSW TO THE BAHAMAS. THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT AND LAST VISIBLE METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST N 12N E OF 45W. WITHIN THIS AREA OF DRY DUSTY AIR...AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS FOUND ON WATER VAPOR NEAR 27N43W WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA